Currently preparing for financial ruin. Why?

I'm expecting my feet and legs to be pretty sore after each Kendo class.

I will be doing Kendo three times a week.

I've arrived back to Shenzhen to discover a (relatively) cheap foot massage place has just opened on the first floor of my apartment building.

Something tells me I'll become a very frequent customer.

Shixiabei, Shenzhen.

If you like Google services, don't buy Android from a mainland China store

From an blog post about on the word 'Android' disappearing from Samsung's Android-based phones:

What is interesting, though, is to place Samsung's share of Android next to the share that comes from China. As most people know, most Android phones sold in China come with no Google services pre-installed - no Maps, Gmail, calendar, Play etc. It is possible but very fiddly to add them. In MWC I even saw a Motorola phone in this condition. 

Last year I bought a HTC One X at a Chinese big-box electronics retailer. I got it home, opened it up, and started looking in vein for the Google Play Store. It wasn't on the phone. It had been replaced by a small (and terrible) HTC-branded app store. In fact, the phone had no Google apps on it whatsoever and was blocked from installing any. The next day I went to Hong Kong and bought another HTC One X. Not only was it cheaper than the one I purchased on the mainland just the day before, but it also came loaded with a full suite of working Google applications. I then returned home and took the mainland-bought phone back to the store for a full refund. 

So if you're interested in buying an Android phone and care about having Google's services, buy your phone in Hong Kong or from abroad because buying one in mainland China will only bring a world of hurt and frustration.

China imported more oil in December than the US

This is part of a larger shift of oil imports to emerging nations outnumbering that of industrialized nations. From CNN:

The shift between China and the US comes as the International Energy Agency, the western countries' oil watchdog, forecast that emerging countries would for the first time consume more oil than industrialized nations. The Paris-based IEA forecast that non-OECD countries will consume 44.9m b/d next quarter, compared with 44.7m b/d for the OECD nations.

The US remains the world's largest net oil importer on an annual basis, but the margin over China has narrowed significantly over the last five years. The country's net foreign purchases of crude and refined products dropped to a 20-year low of 7.14m b/d in 2012, while Chinese net oil imports averaged 5.72m b/d.

Like being forced-fed Brussels sprouts on Christmas morning: Real Racing 3

I was so looking forward to Real Racing 3, the followup to the amazing Real Racing and Real Racing 2 games on iPhone and iPad. Those games not only looked amazing, but felt more amazing than all other racing games I have played on the platform. I became addicted to Real Racing 2's multiplayer. Don't tell mom, but at one point I was staying up until 2 or 3 am almost every single night for a month straight, laying in bed with my phone racing against people from all around the world. It felt like the future. Then previews of Real Racing 3 were released, showing not only beautiful cars but real-life racetracks. Real Racing 3 was just released and this should be one of the highlights of my year. 

Well the future doesn't feel so bright any more.

The game is downloading to my iPad as I type this but I'm already feeling a tinge of anger after reading various online reviews. I previously downloaded and played another racing game called CSR Racing. The game's story and concept wasn't that bad and I probably would have enjoyed it and continued to play it had it cost $5, $10, or even $15. Instead, it was free. Why was this bad? It was bad because it meant it was a freemium game; the game was free to download but players were encouraged (that's the nicest word I can think for it) to pay real money along the way. It is this freemium model that made me have to choose between literally paying real money for virtual gasoline or waiting 10-15 minutes every few races for my virtual gas tank in my virtue car to slowly refill. It was a terrible experience and I stopped playing a day later, having spent no money on the game. 

Guess what? New publisher EA decided to turn Real Racing 3 into a freemium game. F**k. From Eurogamer's review:

You can probably tell by the size of the yachts in Monaco's harbour, the opulence of the motorhomes that form a worldwide series' travelling circus or the amount of inbreeding evident around the paddock of Silverstone on a Grand Prix weekend that motor racing is a rich man's game. You can't just turn up to the races with a pair of fresh boots and a big heart: a single season in Formula Ford, one of the most junior of categories on the national scene, costs in excess of £120,000.

So kudos to Firemonkeys, the new outfit forged by EA from esteemed Australian mobile studios Firemint and Iron Monkey, for being the first developer to fully realise the crippling costs of motorsport in interactive form. Here's a game that's not shy about handing you repair bills at the end of a race and one that doesn't blush over an in-game car that costs almost £60 in real-world money.

Further on in the review:

At a time when the gaming world is finally comfortable with the idea of a triple-A mobile game, Real Racing 3 should have been a triumphant affirmation of a point made convincingly enough by the first game in the series. Instead, it's been strangled by the tentacles of gaming's next unconquerable: free-to-play.

If games like Dota and Tribes are the warm, welcoming faces of free-to-play, then Real Racing 3 is the grotesque polar opposite, the snarling grinch that's the embodiment of every sceptic's worst nightmare. It's cynical, it's nasty and it's hard-wired into the very fabric of the game, making it totally unavoidable.

There's an in-game economy comprised of credits and the harder-to-come-by gold, which would be fair enough if the economy wasn't so horrendously lopsided in EA's favour. Every part of Real Racing's make-up away from the track is a transaction where you're on the rough end of the deal.

Waiting 10 real-world minutes to repair your brakes? Yep. Waiting 10 minutes to change oil? Yeah. Waiting another 10 minutes to fix damage? Yes. Paying real money if you want to skip these waiting times every time they pop up? Yes Sir. Kill me now.

I have a better idea: I'll let you keep your freemium model to allow people to sample the game for free, but at least let me and other serious enthusiasts pay a lump sum, say $20 or even $30, to get rid of all these ridiculous micro-transactions and wait times. I will gladly pay you a fair amount to be able to play this game frustration free.

Unfortunately, no such option exists. I only have two avenues: 1) Pay an ungodly amount of money all the time and feel like I'm being used by a greedy corporation but be able to skip all the completely arbitrary wait times and have access to all the cars and tracks, or 2) play as much of the game as I can for free and refuse to pay a dime out of principle but suffer egregious waiting times and limited access to cars and tracks. Unless circumstances change, I can tell you now I'm almost certainly sticking with option #2.

You're beautiful on the outside but you have such an ugly heart.

And about the great multiplay from the last game that seems to no longer exist in this one? Kotaku has a conspiracy about its absence:

I mean sure, there's no longer any real online multiplayer, replaced by "Time-Shifted" multiplayer in which players race against AI clones of friends and strangers, but I convinced myself that this was a much more convenient way to encourage social play among the community.

Now I'm not so sure that was the reasoning behind the switch. Now it occurs to me that regular standard online play would have gotten in the way of crap like this:

From Kotaku's review

I imagine it would be hard to maintain a party of friends racing online simultaneously when at any given time one of them might have to stop and wait 15 minutes for his or her car to finish being repaired.

I've anxiously anticipated the release of this game for the past two year. Now it's here and it's a scary and beautifully pathetic minefield of micro-transactions and arbitrary handcuffs. I want to play this game, love this game, have babies with this game, but there is no way I'm draining even a dime from my iTunes account if it means EA feels any sort of vindication that this is an acceptable way forward for the future of gaming. 

My mother just gave me a Christmas morning ultimatum of only being able to open the big present under the tree if I eat a huge bowl of Brussels sprouts without complaint. 

No present under the tree is worth a big bowl of Brussels sprouts, especially when that big stinking bowl is being forced in your face by mother. 

Update: Even more nonsense. From the last paragraph of the Eurogamer review: 

Let's finish with a little maths. You notice the car you've just bought in a £13.99 pack is suspiciously slow in races, so you want to acquire the first of three engine upgrades that costs 44,000 credits. If you get 3500 credits for winning a race after getting tail-ended just once by another car, get handed a 2855 credit repair bill for the damage and then have to pay another 500 credits to get the oil changed - a job that takes 20 minutes to do, unless you want to hand over a little more cash - what's the final number?

Mother just dumped broccoli on top of the Brussel sprouts.

Tencent's WeChat to open US office

I love WeChat and all its shaking. It has become my social app of choice (with more usage than QQ, MoMo, Facebook, and anything else combined). Now Tencent is opening a US office focused on development of the WeChat app for the US market: 

Tencent has launched a U.S. office for its WeChat mobile messaging application, according to Huxiu.com, citing an internal company email on Monday morning.

The office will be responsible for development and research for WeChat users in the US, as well as for client relationship development, said in the mail.

Wonder where the office will be located. 

Windows Phone is still nowhere to be seen in China

Back in September I wrote:

As a side note, Nokia says their largest market thus far for Windows Phone has been China. I saw a woman with one in Hong Kong today (just one), but I have yet to see with my own eyes any pedestrians on the mainland walking around with one. Where are all of these supposed Chinese Windows phones?

Just read this from Computer World about Nokia in China:  

In China, things are even worse. The Financial Times reports that Nokia made a deal with with China Telecom for the carrier to sell a customized version of Nokia's Windows Phone Lumia, so you would expect that to help sales boom. That didn't happen. The Times says that Nokia sold only 4.6 million phones in China for the fourth quarter, compared to 14.7 million in the fourth quarter a year previously. This massive drop in sales occured even though the Chinese market is going like gangbusters, and will be the world's largest for smartphones in 2012.

I will repeat my same statement from September - Where are all these Windows Phones they're supposedly selling? (single digit millions is a small number in a country of a billion people, but it's not an invisible number) I was shocked/fascinated to see a Lumia 920 next to me in the subway the other day. It was bright red and in the possession of a girl about a foot taller than me. Part of the fascination was because outside of electronics retailers I hadn't seen a Windows Phone in the wild for months. 

Guessing it's difficult to sell many Windows Phones when the below is a typical type of advertisement from China Telecom. That's 14 (extremely) cheap Android phones, one lone Nokia Windows Phone, and one I-look-like-an-iPhone-so-believe-me-that-I-work-just-like-an-iPhone phone.

Advertisement at a bus stop in the high-tech district of Nanshan, Shenzhen. 

So why didn't I end up buying a Lumia 920 as I was originally thinking about doing in my September post? The sad fact is the phone is a tank of a phone. I had heard this stated in reviews but when I finally got a chance to see and hold one in person... man, it's an absolute tank, both in size and weight. 

Baby got back. 

Why can't Android and WP phone makers produce high end phones that aren't bricks or phablets. There must be people out there like me who aren't built like the Hulk and don't carry around a purse and want to easily use their phones one handed while walking around. That's the main reason I stuck with the iPhone. 

HTC has a "solution"...

China's top business cities

CNN Money has released a list of "China's 5 best new cities for business." #3 on the list is my current city of residence, Shenzhen:

After Deng Xiaoping introduced market-based economic reforms in 1978, he chose Shenzhen, then a fishing village near Hong Kong, as the nation's first special economic zone. Thirty years later the city has the highest GDP per capita in China ($13,581), with a hot real estate market and a sophisticated financial services sector.

Also on the list at #2 is Qingdao, where I lived for two years from 2009 through 2010:

Because of its proximity to Japan and Korea and its roots as a German colony, Qingdao was a natural destination for foreign investment starting in the late 1970s. Today the city is a prime tourist destination, with a beer festival and a yacht culture. But it isn't exactly Nantucket: This year its busy port will open the world's largest iron ore terminal.

Others on the list include top-ranked Suzhou (have never been), fourth-ranked Ningbo (I've only stopped over at their airport), and fifth-ranked Dalian (never made the short trip to it from Qingdao but I did read a lot about its oil spill).

Forbes China also released their 2012 list of best cities in China for business (here and here). Shenzhen is ranked #3 behind Shanghai and Hangzhou. Beijing is #8 and Qingdao #11. 

When will China pass America as Apple's largest market? (And what's happening to Mircosoft?)

The amazing Horace Dediu estimates it will be in 2016. Below is a chart from his article:

Horace Dediu's estimate for future Apple net sales

He next compares Apple and Microsoft:

The contrast with Microsoft now comes back into focus. China and the US have a roughly equal number of PCs but the mobile users in China exceed the US by a factor of three to one. The pool of users is so great that Apple obtained its growth even with reaching only 30% mobile network distribution coverage.

Without a mobile portfolio Microsoft is severely hampered. Of course, Microsoft is trying and has made several attempts to place its Windows Phone in the hands of Chinese users. It’s a tough sale however because Microsoft must work through partners. They need to get vendors to license the OS and the operators to range the devices and retailers to push it. Given the flood of “free” Android variants they are having trouble even starting down that long road.

I was just in Huaqiangbei. Everything except iPhones and the few small Nokia stores is Android. Cheap Android. I've only seen one Surface RT in the wild. The Surface Pro should have a better chance. 

Today's Big Stories for January 14, 2013

Landslides, pollution, Ford, EU legal disputes, the wedding market, and economic optimism. 

1. Earthquakes behind China landslide that killed 46: expert

A landslide in southwest China that killed 46 people was partly caused by an earthquake that hit the region four months ago, a geological expert said on Saturday.

Unstable soil and steep slopes also contributed to Friday's landslide in Yunnan province, the state-run news agency Xinhua quoted Jiang Xingwu as saying.

Wiped out an entire village.

2. China hit by extreme air pollution

After weeks of record-breaking cold, accompanied by clear, dry skies, the weather turned warmer late Thursday. By the weekend, many of the pedestrians in Beijing were wearing face masks. On Saturday, the Children's Hospital of Beijing reported 900 children treated for respiratory problems. Hospitals also reported sharp increases in the number of older patients who were having difficulty breathing.

Wow.

3. Ford Keeps Rolling In China

Ford's success in China is important because growth in China is absolutely key to Ford's long-range global plan. The company has said that it expects 70% of its overall growth to come from Asia and Africa by the middle of the decade -- much of that from the Chinese auto market, now the largest in the world.

Ford was very late to the Chinese auto party, arriving years after rivals such as General Motors , Volkswagen , and Toyota had established major presences in the Middle Kingdom. Many analysts questioned whether the company would be able to win significant market share in the face of such strong, established competition.

I think the new Ford Fusion will do well in China. 

4. China shoe exporters stand tall with EU victory

The legal dispute began in 2006 when 150 Chinese companies appealed an EC decision to slap a 16.5% anti-dumping duty on all Chinese and Vietnamese-made shoes made of leather imported by European trading companies and sold in EU countries.

5. Love in China: Navigating an $80 Billion Wedding Market

Understanding the interplay of how Chinese are embracing foreign traditions or holding on to old customs related to dating and marriage is essential for marketers. Each year in China more than 10 million couples marry, creating an industry estimated at $80 billion annually with strong ties to retail, fashion, jewelry, travel and tourism, financial planning, real estate and household purchases.

6. China Is Cause for Optimism on World Economic Pickup, Swan Says

China’s economic recovery is a sign that global demand will improve this year, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said ahead of a visit to Hong Kong where he will speak today at the Asian Financial Forum.

“I’m optimistic that 2013 will be a better year for the global economy,” Swan said yesterday in his weekly economic note. “One cause of optimism is recent evidence that China’s economy appears to be stabilizing after economic conditions moderated in 2012.”

Las Vegas advertising online as Chinese New Year destination

Screenshot of the Flash advertisement

If there's any question how important and attractive Chinese tourists are becoming, check out the official Flash advertisement (I took a screenshot as quickly as I could) that I came across tonight from Las Vegas advertising their city to potential Chinese tourists for the upcoming February Chinese New Years holiday. The Mandarin in the advertisement to the right says, "quickly plan your journey." Below is a picture of the official Las Vegas website. 

Las Vegas Chinese New Year homepage

I then went to Google and searched for Las Vegas/Chinese New Years-related articles. Here's some of what I found:

Casinos rolling out the red carpet for Chinese New Year

The holiday ranks among the busiest times on the Strip, along with New Year’s Eve and Super Bowl weekend, which coincides with the beginning on Chinese New Year.

“Chinese New Year very important to us financially, maybe not in terms of overall visitor count, but clearly for gaming volumes, especially baccarat. The financial impact can rival what the town experiences for New Year’s Eve,” said Greg Shulman, vice president of international marketing for the Bellagio.

Thousands Flock to Las Vegas for Chinese New Year

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority's international sales department has been working closely with tour operators to bring more Chinese tourists from mainland China. Casinos along the Strip are displaying elaborate attractions to welcome the visitors.

The Bellagio Conservatory and Botanical Gardens has five hand painted dragons with more than 20,000 scales each. They also have more than 22,000 colorful flowers.

The Palazzo will display a 128-foot fire-breathing dragon. And the atriums at the Wynn will have about 8,000 red and yellow mums, silk dragons and lots of sculptures.

Las Vegas bets big on Lunar New Year

While there are no precise numbers, tourism officials here estimate tens of thousands of Asian and Asian American visitors - from the Bay Area, Beijing and many places between and beyond - are ringing in Lunar Year 4706 not in their homes with large extended families, but in Sin City, where extravagant feasts, themed entertainment and, yes, a little gambling fit in with long-held traditions for the holiday.

OK, a lot of gambling.

Casino owners, firm believers that you make your own luck, have been raising the stakes each year - elaborate exhibits; banners around every corner wishing good fortune, prosperity, long life; concerts by pop stars from Taiwan; lion dances; and culinary festivals with food prepared and served by staffs flown from Beijing - to make sure that, win or lose, guests still feel lucky.

Vegas Bet on Chinese VIPs Raises Red Flags With Feds

In a single night during the Lunar New Year last year, Wynn's Las Vegas resort won $16 million in table gambling, the biggest tables-game night in its history. Asked at an investor conference about the Chinese business in Las Vegas, Sands' CEO Sheldon Adelson described gambling as a "linchpin" of the Chinese culture. "In my second life, I'm coming back as Chinese," he said.

Maybe I shouldn't have been so surprised to come across a Las Vegas Chinese New Year travel ad. 

Today's Big Stories for January 6, 2012

China's coldest winter, China's tennis winner, the world's longest subway, the world's auto-manufacturing gateway. 

1. Brrr! China's Coldest Winter In Decades at New Low

The state-run, English-language China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea.

Winter hasn't fully arrived in Shenzhen. Guess most of the cold is being deposited farther north. 

2. China's Li beats Zakopalova in Shenzhen final

Chinese star Li Na captured her seventh career title and second on home soil when she beat Klara Zakopalova of the Czech Republic 6-3, 1-6, 7-5 on Saturday in the Shenzhen Open final.

Missed it.

3. World’s longest subway system boosts China’s public transport push

China on Saturday came out with a new policy to boost usage of public transport, days after the capital, Beijing, put into operation four subway lines — with a combined length of 70 km — whose addition makes the sprawling 16-line Beijing subway system the world’s longest.

The extended Line 10 is a monster. It might not be the most condensed metro system in the world, but boy is it long. 

4. China projected to build more cars than Europe in 2013

Financial Times reports China may build more vehicles than 
Europe next year for the first time in the history of the automotive industry. All told, manufacturers in China are projected to produce 19.6 million light vehicles this year compared to the 18.3 million slated to be built in Europe. 

Interesting.

Apple gaining negotiation leverage over China Mobile?

China Mobile and the iPhone, a tragic tale of what could be the perfect couple but for the pervasion of egos and pigheadedness. Apple has the iPhone. China Mobile has the subscribers. And on and on and on. Leverage in negotiations could (finally) be starting to tip to one side. From All Things D:

According to Evercore Partners analyst Rob Cihra, China Mobile’s traction in the 3G market is slipping, and that may well be due to the fact that it still doesn’t offer the iPhone.

“We think China Mobile could be starting to ‘need’ the iPhone more, since it has seen its 3G market share erode by -7 percent to 37 percent since 2011 vs. China Telecom+Unicom having gained +7 percent to 63 percent,” Cihra said. “China Unicom alone has added nearly 2 million more 3G subs than China Mobile year-to-date despite being almost 1/3 the size, and overall share losses look to correlate with introduction of the iPhone in Mainland China.”

New burger chains coming to China...

Buried in an article about KFC's recent troubles in China is this:

Chargrilled burger chain Carl's Jr has started popping up in Shanghai, and Californian chain Fatburger in Beijing.

Wonderful news. Begs two questions though... Is Carl's Jr China serving fried zucchini? And when is Wendy's arriving? 

By the way, I don't see how KFC can continue to grow at the rate it has been. My parents remember coming to China 15+ years ago and seeing Chinese having to make reservations for a table at KFC. As the article above absolutely correctly states, KFC is now seen by a majority of citizens in 1st and 2nd tier cities simply as fast (and unhealthy) food. Now they have the antibiotic scare. The answer isn't opening more stores, as KFC seems to have already saturated most of the east coast. So what to do?

KFC's current answer to inspire new consumption: "Heatwave" crispy popcorn shrimp. 

KFC popcorn shrimp

Logo of the Day: SuperSteak

Coco Park metro station. Futian, Shenzhen.

How Amazon China delivers their wares

Shuangjing, Beijing.