And so the "big choice" begins

In Chinese, 'general election' is literally '大选' (da xuan), meaning 'big choice.' I'm trying hard to watch live online right now but the internet is very slow (as in buffering 15 seconds for every 5 seconds of streaming). I might have to stick with live blogs to see who's winning. Whatever happens, I'll either be singing on the streets of Shenzhen or punching a pillow in my bedroom come noontime. 

Might a Romney presidency start a war between China and Japan?

That's what my Chinese workmates thinks. As we watched a news report on Chinese TV about the upcoming presidential debate, out of the blue my colleague said something to the effect of, "if Romney becomes president, there will be a war between Japan and China." I asked my friend to explain and he suggests that Romney's vow to increase America's military presence in the Pacific (to say nothing of attacking China vigorously on trade) may exacerbate the Diaoyu Island standoff to the point off war. 

As if I didn't have enough to worry about...

Today's Big Stories for September 13, 2012

Where is he, what will the central bank do, and is a rise in defaults around the corner? 

1. China silence on Xi speculation contrasts with past denials

Speculation about [Vice President] Xi began after he canceled meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that Xi may have injured his back swimming. The Hong Kong-based Apple Daily newspaper, citing unidentified sources, reported today that Xi suffered a heart attack.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said last week that the cancellations were a “normal adjustment” and when asked yesterday, said he had “no information” about Xi.

2. Will Fed easing spur China's central bank into quick action? 

"The key dilemma for policymakers is that inflation looks like it will pick up earlier than expected, while a growth recovery coming later than expected," said Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.
"I think the central bank will probably do a little bit more (on easing), depending on how the economy is doing. Realistically, the economy is going to rebound but certainly not going to rebound significantly."

3. Shadow bankers vanishing leave China victims seeing scams

China’s slowest economic growth in three years and a slumping property market, where many so-called shadow-banking investments are parked, are squeezing millions of Chinese who have invested the money of friends and acquaintances chasing higher yields to honor those payments. The slowdown also is putting pressure on the government to rein in private lending to avoid a spate of defaults that could increase the number of victims and lead to social unrest.

Rely on law, not guanxi

Dan Harris of China Law Blog advices against 'cutting legal corners' and solely relying on guanxi (special relationships). The concluding paragraph of his latest blog post

So what are we saying here? Are we saying having good connections is a bad thing? No. Are we saying never use your connections to your advantage? No, we are not saying that either. What we are saying is that you should always be mindful of the risks inherent in going sidestepping the law and always beware of how doing so can come back to bite you. Or to put it another way, Guanxi Either Retires or Goes to Jail.

The saying in the last sentence comes courtesy of the blog All Roads Lead To China and it's completely true. Don't hinge the entire success of your business project on the guanxi you have; a lot can change in a day.